21st Century Business Herald reporter Li Yuchen Beijing Beijing report
From the popularity of Nikkei 225, to the over -the -LE index of US stocks such as the Nasdi Platinism, S & P and other US stocks, the cross -border ETF quickly staged a round of high -growth and high premium "drumming flowers".New Delhi Stock Exchange
With the end of January, many cross -border ETFs that were previously popular, and its market performance has begun to stabilize.
As of January 30, the MSCI MSCI 50ETF, which has the highest market premium, continued to decline, and the IOPV discount rate has narrowed to 14.59%from 42%before the two transactions.
On the same day, the premium rate of 23 cross-border ETFs in the market exceeded 1%, the premium rate of 8 cross-border ETFs exceeded 3%, and the average discount rate of QDII-ETFs in the market was 0.64%.
On the whole, the extreme performance of the market has been further dissolved, but the premium rate of individual funds is still high and low. Before the market price returns rationally, many people in the industry have reminded investors to chase high.
How to understand the long -standing cross -border ETF premium?After the premium is flattened, what are the investment directions that are more worthy of long -term attention in overseas markets?
Cross -border ETF premium "relay"
When A shares are still waiting for opportunities at a low level, the overseas markets that bloom more, making cross -border ETFs the first to become the focus of public offering in the public offering market in early 2024.At present, there are a total of QDII215 in my country, of which 110 are QDII-ETFs, and Wind data shows that as of January 30, 24 cross-border ETFs increased by more than 2%during the month.
Throughout this round of the trend, the opening performance of the niche markets in Southeast Asia, Germany, and France in 2024 can be remarkable, but the earliest power to promote the center of the spotlight in the center of the spotlight is undoubtedly in the first half.Live in the Japanese stock market.
Japan’s fundamental optimism has affected the superimposed foreign -funded hot money to help. In the short two weeks in the first half of January, the Nikkei 225 rose 7 trading days in a row, refreshing a new high in nearly 30 years.
The four A -share markets tracked the Nikkei 225 index exceeding 3.6%throughout the board, of which the largest Huaxia Wild Village Nikkei 225ETF led a 4.58%increase.Even the East Cover Index with relatively eloquent volatility, the tracking ETF also rose more than 2%.
Since mid -January, the above -mentioned Nikkei ETF Fund managers have begun to concentrate on reminding the premium risk.It still maintains a high state.
Among them, the premium rate of Nikkei 225ETF in Huaxia Wild Village even expanded to more than 10%, and at the close of the 23rd, the 20.68%market high was reached.
Following the opening of the U.S. stock market, the ETFs that followed the Broad -based Index such as the S & P and the Nasdaq have taken over a high -growth and high -premium relay stick.
Judging from the return rate, the Yuejing Shunshun Great Wall Narf Technology ETF revenue led a leading income, an increase of 8.92%.On the other hand, the closing on January 23, the MSCI US 50ETF topped the list with a premium rate of up to 20.98%.A new round of high premium waves.
On January 25th and 26th, the 50ETF premium rate in the United States was rushed to 40%for two consecutive days, while the fund’s past premium rate rarely exceeded 2%.However, the ultimate premium performance came and went fast. On January 29, the fund triggered a 10%daily limit, and the premium also converged sharply. From 42.51%of the previous trading day, it fell to 28.4%.
As of January 30, according to the latest closing data of the latest trading day of the tracking index local time, the daily limit of the MSCI US 50ETF in the United States continued, and its premium rate narrowed to 14.59%.The ICBC and Huaxia ETF rose 6.42%and 4.61%respectively, and the premium rate of the two funds returned to more than 12%.In addition, the ETF premium in the European market such as Germany and France rose to 3%.
The arbitrage mechanism fails
As a product that can be redeemed at the first -level market and traded in the secondary market, the real -time price of the index component stock after comprehensive estimation constitutes the real -time reference net value (IOPV) of ETF.Transaction price.In theory, when the transaction price of ETF rose higher than the net worth, the emergence of arbitrage funds will be used to buy high -selling and high -sales at low markets, and quickly settle the premium.
However, in addition to the promotion of market emotional background, the failure of the cross-border market arbitrage mechanism has become the main reason behind many QDII-ETF products.
Ni Bin, an assistant director of the Huaan Fund Index and the assistant director of the Ministry of Earneration, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald that the problem of high premiums is essentially involved in the relationship between the cross -border ETF primary and secondary market linkage.The fundamental reason is that the fund company has to simultaneously tighten the purchase limit because of the QDII exchange limit limit.
"It is not a high company that causes the discount of folding premium arbitrage, but because of the QDII exchange quota limit, etc., it may adjust the purchase limit of the purchase, which will affect the transaction behavior between the primary and secondary markets, which will cause an abnormal market.Fluctuations. "Ni Bin said," "For this kind of fluctuation, we will repeatedly remind investors to do a good job of risk management and not chase high."
A fund evaluation analyst in Shanghai also said in an interview that in the past two years, the Foreign Management Bureau has greatly released the amount of QDII in my country in the past two years. As of the end of last year, the domestic securities QDII quota was approximately 650 billion yuan The whole is close to 1.2 trillion yuan.But for each fund company or a specific product, the exchange quota is still limited.
In addition to the supply and shortage of subscribed shares and allowing the purchase funds to accumulate in the secondary market, the fund analyst also pointed out that the cross-border transaction mechanism will also objectively affect the discount rate of QDII-ETF, which is profitable.Bring uncertainty.
"Since the overseas index is priced by foreign currency, when converting into RMB, the exchange rate conversion method used will also affect the real -time net value (IOPV) calculation of the fund.The calculated IOPV is not necessarily the real real -time value at the momentKanpur Stock. "The person said.
At present, the reporter learned from several public offering agencies issued by Nikkei ETF products that in order to control the premium during the month, the company has made a certain inclined behavior to the fund’s QDII quota.
While the manager’s response to premium risks, supervision is also rapidly followed up.Among them, from January 22 to January 26th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange monitored a fund with high premiums such as the 50ETF US 50ETF in the UFI MSCI.
In fact, investors often need to bear the dual risks of premium falling and index rise and fall at high premium.From the perspective of historical data, the premium rate of ETF cannot be maintained at a high position for a long time.Zhang Qing, an analyst at Huabao Securities, has pointed out that as of May 2023, the domestic ETF has been in a total of 47 premium rates that have exceeded 15%since 2020, and the average number of days to maintain more than 15%is only 1.7sky.
Looking at the overseas layout from growth logic
At present, the Nikkei 225 Index has broken three thousand points in a row and rushed to 36,000 highlands. The S & P 500 also reached a record high after two years.Can the Japanese and US stock markets in the historic high after the premium discharge?
The reporter noticed that the industry’s views have different judgments on the core factors of the strengthening of Japan and the United States. Among them, the optimism of the Japanese economy has a stronger basic background.Looking forward to the market outlook, investment analysts believe that the state of Japan’s deflationary state will continue. Under the national interest rate and exchange rate, the friendly environment of foreign investors is still expected to be maintained, but the performance of enterprises and the expectations of stock prices are not expected to be upward.powerful.
"The uplink of the Japanese stock market has dual economic and financial factor, but these favorable factors may face reversal in 2024." Galaxy Securities said in recent research reports that "the Japanese stock market is facing difficulties again, and my country is within the market in ChinaAgra Wealth Management. The rise of the ETF of the Nikkei is too large, and investors will face the four pressures of liquidity, exchange rates, economic fundamentals, and monetary policies.
At the same time, considering the preparation of broad -based components, the US stock index is more structural, and the core comes from the contribution of the core leading stocks under the AI wave.In the four quarters of the four seasons disclosed recently, a group of QDII fund managers who invested in U.S. stocks said that the new year will continue to be optimistic about large chips and technology companies that have benefited from the development of artificial intelligence.
However, Guojin Securities also pointed out that in 2023, the US stocks were in the extreme structural market. The "Seven Heroes" such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia increased basically in the 50%-240%range, while the average of other stocks rose by about 1%. It is expected to be 2024 in 2024.The ultimate market may be difficult to continue, and the performance of the US stock market industry will tend to be balanced.
It is worth mentioning that although there is no ETF product in China, but looking at the overall overseas investment market, QDII, led by Southeast Asia, also has a remarkable performance.
Among them, the Indian market, which has grown steadily throughout the year and accelerated in the fourth quarter, has increased significantly.On January 22, the total market value of the Indian stock market reached US $ 4.33 trillion, and for the first time, Hong Kong stocks became the world’s fourth largest stock market.
As of January 29, the two domestic QDIIs that invested in the Indian market, the ICBC Credit Suisse Fund Fund LOF and Manilist Indian stocks. The net value performance during the month was increased first, and the overall realization was slightly increased, and 0.68%and 0.29%were recorded.
The Manuri Fund believes that the weakening of the US economy and the end of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike cycle have brought about improvement to the global US dollar liquidity. The strong growth of the domestic economy in India and the gentle inflation level still bring fundamental support to the domestic stock market.In the short term, it should be noted that the short-term fluctuations brought by the US economic data disturbance from January to February.In terms of sectors, it is still optimistic about financial, industrial and consumer stocks that benefit from domestic demand recovery, and increased the technology sector with a lot of early valuation adjustments.
Tianhong Vietnam Market Fund, which is the only domestic investment in Vietnam, ranked at the forefront of the QDII market with a 3.78%increase in January.After a certain upward pressure in 2023, the fund manager Hu Chao recently said that the Vietnam economy is expected to usher in a good turn in 2024 and return to 6%to 7%of the economic growth center of 6%to 7%.
(Edit: Jiang Shi Qiang)
Simla Wealth Management